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Writeups
The bottom-edge problem
Umpires miss the low strike more than any other call. A look at why the bottom of the zone is where challenges are won and lost.
Read the article →Reading the catcher's eye
How a single number — perception sigma — separates the catchers who can tell a ball from a strike at the margin from the ones who guess.
The wins on the table
Add up every unchallenged +EV miss and it comes to roughly 114 wins across the league. Where teams are leaving them.
Explore the data
Every surface sorts and drills down. For the narrative and the methods, see the writeup.
The zone
Where umpires miss, and how the overturn rate moves with distance from the edge.
Explore →Catchers
Each catcher's measured perception (sigma) and how often their challenges land.
Explore →Umpires
Miss rates by zone region, and who gets challenged and overturned most.
Explore →Teams
Net challenge value, wasted challenges, and the runs each team leaves unchallenged.
Explore →League trends
How the challenge game moves over the season, by distance, count, and pitch type.
Explore →Decision engine
Any game state → the confidence you need before a challenge is worth it.
Explore →